Ms Gemma Hansen

Honours thesis

Groundwater contamination and salt intrusion

The study is an analysis of salinity levels in the Murray River in the region known as Murtho, which is between Renmark and the South Australian Victorian border. Data has been collected daily from three different stations over a seven year period. An initial analysis of trends, seasonal variation, and persistence of salt concentration at the three stations is presented. This is followed by a discussion on fitting multivariate time series models, which allow for association between salinity at the three stations and other hydrological variables: rainfall, river flow, and temperature. A physical interpretation of the multivariate time series models, and the use of these models for the prediction of salt concentration results is presented. The role of multivariate time series models in control algorithms for systems of locks that might be used to regulate salinity is discussed.