Dr Joshua Ross: Publications


If you have any trouble accessing my papers, please send me an email requesting the article you would like to read.

Google Scholar Citations

[ 2006-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2015-2019 | Submitted ]
[ Book chapter | Edited volumes | Book review ]
[ PhD Thesis | Outreach communication ]

Submitted


Ballard, P.G., Bean, N.G., and Ross, J.V. The impact of time-dependent transmission rate on the probability of epidemic fade-out.

Cope, R.C., Ross, J.V., Chilver, M., Stocks, N.P. and Mitchell, L. Connecting surveillance and population-level influenza incidence.

Cope, R.C., Ross, J.V., Drake, J.M., Wittman, T.A., Dyer, E., Blackburn, T.M., West, P. and Cassey, P. Assessment of range bagging for the prediction of potential invasive ranges.

Garcia-Diaz, P., Ross, J.V., Vall-Llosera, M. and Cassey, P. Monitoring for successful detection: implementation of early detection surveys for alien reptiles.

Prowse, T.A.A., Adikusuma, F., Cassey, P., Thomas, P. and Ross, J.V. A Y-chromosome shredding gene drive for controlling pest vertebrate populations.




Fully-Refereed Journal Articles


2015 - 2019


[69] Yan, A.W.C., Black, A.J., McCaw, J.M., Rebuli, N., Ross, J.V., Swan, A.J. and Hickson, R.I. (2018) The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between communities. Mathematical Biosciences 303, 139-147.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[68] Wilkins, K.E., Prowse, T.A.A., Cassey, P., Thomas, P.Q. and Ross, J.V. (2018) Pest demography critically determines the viability of synthetic gene drives for population control. Mathematical Biosciences in press.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[67] Rebuli, N.P., Bean, N.G. and Ross, J.V. (2018) Estimating the basic reproductive number during the early stages of an emerging epidemic. Theoretical Population Biology 119, 26-36.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[66] Price, D.J., Bean, N.G., Ross, J.V. and Tuke, J. (2018) Designing group dose-response studies in the presence of transmission. Mathematical Biosciences 304, 62-78.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[65] Price, D.J., Bean, N.G., Ross, J.V. and Tuke, J. (2018) An induced natural selection heuristic for finding optimal Bayesian experimental designs. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 126, 112-124.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[64] Kinyanjui, T.M., Middleton, J., Guttel, S., Cassell, J.A., Ross, J.V. and House, T. (2018) Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units. PLOS Computational Biology 14(3): e1006046.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[63] Cope, R.C., Ross, J.V., Chilver, M., Stocks, N.P. and Mitchell, L. (2018) Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data. PLOS Computational Biology 14(8): e1006377.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[62] Walker, J.N., Ross, J.V. and Black, A.J. (2017) Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data. PLOS ONE 12(10): e0185910.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[61] Rebuli, N.P., Bean, N.G. and Ross, J.V. (2017) Hybrid Markov chain models of S-I-R disease dynamics. Journal of Mathematical Biology 75, 521-541.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[60] Prowse, T.A.A., Cassey, P., Ross, J.V., Pfitzner, C., Wittmann, T. and Thomas, P. (2017) Dodging silver bullets: good CRISPR gene-drive design is critical for eradicating exotic vertebrates. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 284: 20170799.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[59] Garcia-Diaz, P., Ross, J.V., Woolnough, A. and Cassey, P. (2017) Managing the risk of wildlife disease introduction: pathway-level biosecurity for preventing the introduction of alien ranaviruses. Journal of Applied Ecology 54, 234-241.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[58] Cope, R.C., Ross, J.V., Wittmann, T.A., Watts, M.J. and Cassey, P. (2017) Predicting the risk of biological invasions using environmental similarity and transport network connectedness. Risk Analysis (to appear).

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[57] Brock, A.R., Ross, J.V., Greenhalgh, S., Durham, D., Galvani, A., Parikh, S. and Esterman, A. (2017) The effect of drug quality on the transmission of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum. Infectious Diseases Modelling 2, 161-187.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[56] Brock, A.R., Gibbs, C.A., Ross, J.V. and Esterman, A. (2017) The impact of antimalarial use on the emergence and transmission of Plasmodium falciparum resistance: A scoping review of mathematical models. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 2, 54.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[55] Black, A.J., Geard, N., McCaw, J.M., McVernon, J. and Ross, J.V. (2017) Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies. Epidemics 19, 61-73.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[54] Ballard, P.G., Bean, N.G. and Ross, J.V. (2017) Epidemic intervention to maximise the probability of epidemic fade-out. Mathematical Biosciences 293, 1-10.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[53] Mitchell, L. and Ross, J.V. (2016) A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects. Royal Society Open Science 3:160481.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[52] Price, D.J., Bean, N.G., Ross, J.V. and Tuke, J. (2016) On the efficient determination of optimal Bayesian experimental designs using ABC: A case study in optimal observation of epidemics. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 172, 1-15.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[51] Lydeamore, M., Bean, N., Black, A.J. and Ross, J.V. (2016) Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 78, 293-321.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[50] Johnston, S.T., Ross, J.V., Binder, B.J., McElwain, D.L.S., Haridas, P. and Simpson, M.J. (2016) Quantifying the effect of experimental design choices for in vitro scratch assays. Journal of Theoretical Biology 400, 19-31.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[49] Heinrich, S., Wittmann, T.A., Prowse, T.A.A., Ross, J.V., Delean, S., Shepherd, C.R. and Cassey, P. (2016) Where did all the pangolins go? International CITES trade in pangolin species. Global Ecology and Conservation 8, 241-253.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[48] Garcia-Diaz, P., Ross, J.V., Woolnough, A. and Cassey, P. (2016) The illegal wildlife trade is a likely source of invasive species. Conservation Letters DOI: 10.1111/conl.12301.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[47] Cope, R.C., Ross, J.V., Wittmann, T.A. and Cassey, P. (2016) Integrative analysis of the physical transport network into Australia. PLOS ONE 11, e0148831.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[46] Bean, N.G., Eshragh, A. and Ross, J.V. (2016) Fisher Information for a partially-observed simple birth process. Communication in Statistics - Theory and Methods 45:24, 7161-7183.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[45] Ballard, P.G., Bean, N.G. and Ross, J.V. (2016) The probability of epidemic fade-out is non-monotonic in transmission rate for the Markovian SIR model with demography. Journal of Theoretical Biology 393, 170-178.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[44] Ross, J.V. and Black, A.J. (2015) Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: The probability of a major outbreak. Mathematical Medicine and Biology 32, 331-343.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[43] Robinson, S.J., Bean, N.G., Ross, J.V., Thompson, R.M. and Bjornsson, K.T. (2015) Statistical description of wetland hydrological connectivity to the River Murray in South Australia under natural and regulated conditions. Journal of Hydrology 531, 929-939.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[42] Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J.V. (2015) Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: When can we improve on the equalising strategy? Epidemics 11, 7-13.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[41] Garcia-Diaz, P., Ross, J.V., Ayres, C., and Cassey, P. (2015) Understanding the biological invasion risk posed by the global wildlife trade: propagule pressure drives the introduction and establishment of Nearctic turtles. Global Change Biology 21, 1078-1091.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[40] Cope, R.C., Prowse, T.A.A., Ross, J.V., Wittmann, T.A. and Cassey, P. (2015) Temporal modelling of ballast water discharge and ship-mediated invasion risk to Australia. Royal Society Open Science 2 150039; DOI: 10.1098/rsos.150039.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[39] Black, A.J. and Ross, J.V. (2015) Computation of epidemic final size distributions. Journal of Theoretical Biology 367, 159-165.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[38] Binder, B.J., Landman, K.A., Newgreen, D.F. and Ross, J.V. (2015) Incomplete penetrance: The role of stochasticity in developmental cell colonization. Journal of Theoretical Biology 380, 309-314.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[37] Bean, N.G., Elliott, R.J., Eshragh, A. and Ross, J.V. (2015) On binomial observations of continuous-time Markovian population models. Journal of Applied Probability 52, 457-472.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]



2010 - 2014


[36] Ross, J.V. and Binder, B.J. (2014) Approximating spatially-exclusive invasion processes. Physical Review E 89, 052709.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[35] McKinley, T.J., Ross, J.V., Deardon, R. and Cook, A.R. (2014) Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 71, 434-447.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[34] Johnston, S.T., Simpson, M.J., McElwain, D.L.S., Binder, B.J. and Ross, J.V. (2014) Interpreting scratch assays using pair density dynamics and approximate Bayesian computation. Open Biology 4: 140097.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[33] Davies, K.J., Green, J.E.F., Bean, N.G., Binder, B.J. and Ross, J.V. (2014) On the derivation of approximations to cellular automata models and the assumption of independence. Mathematical Biosciences 253, 63-71.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[32] Cope, R.C., Cassey, P., Hugo, G.J. and Ross, J.V. (2014) Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia. PLoS Curents Outbreaks 2014 Dec 10. Edition 1. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.aa0375fd48a92c7c9422aa543a88711f.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[31] Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J.V. (2014) The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology 359, 45-53.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[30] Pagendam, D.E. and Ross, J.V. (2013) Optimal use of GPS transmitter for estimating species migration rate. Ecological Modelling 249, 37-41.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[29] House, T., Ross, J.V. and Sirl, D. (2013) How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final size calculation. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences 469, 20120436.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | Supplementary Code | EpiStruct Code]


[28] Black, A. and Ross, J.V. (2013) Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic. PLoS ONE 8(8): e73420.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[27] Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J.V. (2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10, 20121019.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | EpiStruct Code]


[26] Ross, J.V. (2012) On parameter estimation in population models III: Time-inhomogeneous processes and observation error. Theoretical Population Biology 82, 1-17.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[25] House, T., Inglis, N., Ross, J.V., Wilson, F., Suleman, S., Edeghere, O., Smith, G., Olowokure, B. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households. BMC Medicine 10:117.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | See also a Commentary on the paper]


[24] Binder, B.J., Ross, J.V. and Simpson, M.J. (2012) A hybrid model for studying spatial aspects of infectious diseases. ANZIAM Journal 54, 37-49.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]
Special issue on Mathematical Biology.


[23] Ross, J.V. (2011) Invasion of infectious diseases in finite, homogeneous populations. Journal of Theoretical Biology 289, 83-89.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[22] Spence, L.A., Ross, J.V., Wiser, S.K., Allen, R.B. and Coomes, D.A. (2011) Disturbance affects short-term facilitation, but not long-term saturation, of exotic plant invasion in New Zealand forest. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 278, 1457-1466.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[21] Leon Danon, Ashley Ford, Thomas House, Chris Jewell, Matt Keeling, Gareth Roberts, Joshua Ross and Matthew C. Vernon (2011) Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]
Invited review for special issue "Network Perspectives on Infectious Disease Dynamics".


[20] Conlan, A.J.K., Eames, K.T.D., Gage, J., von Kirchbach, J., Ross, J.V., Saenz, R. and Gog, J. (2011) Measuring social networks in British primary schools through scientific engagement. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 278, 1467-1475.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[19] Ross, J.V. (2010) Computationally exact methods for stochastic periodic dynamics: Spatiotemporal dispersal and temporally forced transmission. Journal of Theoretical Biology 262, 14-22.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[18] Ross, J.V., House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Calculation of disease dynamics in a population of households. PLoS ONE 5(3): e9666.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | EpiStruct Code]


[17] Ross, J.V. and Pollett, P.K. (2010) Simple rules for ranking and optimally managing metapopulations. Ecological Modelling 221, 2515-2520.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[16] Pollett, P.K., Dooley, A.H. and Ross, J.V. (2010) Modelling population processes with random initial conditions. Mathematical Biosciences 223, 142-150.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]



2006 - 2009


[15] Ross, J.V. (2009) A note on density dependence in population models. Ecological Modelling 220, 3472-3474.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[14] Ross, J.V., Pagendam, D.E. and Pollett, P.K. (2009) On parameter estimation in population models II: multi-dimensional processes and transient dynamics. Theoretical Population Biology 75, 123-132.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[13] Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J.V. (2009) Efficient methods for studying stochastic disease and population dynamics. Theoretical Population Biology 75, 133-141.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]
F1000 Recommended.


[12] Dangerfield, C.E., Ross, J.V. and Keeling, M.J. (2009) Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 6, 761-774.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[11] Ross, J.V., Sirl, D.J., Pollett, P.K. and Possingham, H.P. (2008) Metapopulation persistence in a dynamic landscape: more habitat or better stewardship? Ecological Applications 18, 590-598.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[10] Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J.V. (2008) On methods for studying stochastic disease dynamics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 5, 171-181.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[9] Wagner, L.D., Ross, J.V. and Possingham, H.P. (2007) Catastrophe management and inter-reserve distance for marine reserve networks. Ecological Modelling 201, 82-88.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[8] Ross, J.V., Taimre, T. and Pollett, P.K. (2007) Estimation for queues from queue length data. Queueing Systems 55, 131-138.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[7] Ross, J.V. and Pollett, P.K. (2007) On costs and decisions in population management. Ecological Modelling 201, 60-66.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[6] Cairns, B.J., Ross, J.V. and Taimre, T. (2007) A comparison of models for predicting population persistence. Ecological Modelling 201, 19-26.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[5] Ross, J.V., Taimre, T. and Pollett, P.K. (2006) On parameter estimation in population models. Theoretical Population Biology 70, 498-510.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[4] Ross, J.V. and Pollett, P.K. (2006) Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases. Mathematical Biosciences 202, 310-322.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[3] Ross, J.V. (2006) Comment on ''On the Regulation of Populations of Mammals, Birds, Fish, and Insects'' II. Science 311, 1100.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[2] Ross, J.V. (2006) Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 68, 417-449.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]


[1] Ross, J.V. (2006) A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics. Journal of Mathematical Biology 52, 788-806.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]



Conference Proceedings


[5] Pagendam, D.E. and Ross, J.V. (2011) Optimal GPS tracking for estimating species movements. In (Eds F. Chan and D. Marinova) Proceedings of MODSIM11 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011.


[4] Ross, J.V. and Pollett, P.K. (2009) Rules of thumb for metapopulation management. In (Eds R.S. Anderssen, R.D. Braddock and L.T.H. Newham) Proceedings of the 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, July 2009, pp. 1795-1801.


[3] Ross, J.V. and Taimre, T. (2007) On the analysis of hospital infection data using Markov models. In (Eds Don Kulasiri and Les Oxley) Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007, pp. 2939-2945.


[2] Pollett, P.K. and Ross, J.V. (2005) Costs and decisions in population management: koalas on Kangaroo Island. In (Eds Robert Argent and Andre Zerger) Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2082-2088.


[1] Cairns, B.J., Ross, J.V. and Taimre, T. (2005) Models for predicting extinction times: shall we dance (or walk or jump)? In (Eds Robert Argent and Andre Zerger) Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2061-2067.



Book chapter

[1] Delean, S., Prowse, T.A.A., Ross, J.V. and Tuke, J. Analyzing time series data: Single species abundance modelling. In Population Ecology in Practice: Underused, Misused, and Abused Methods. Editors: Murray, D.L. and Chapron, G. (to appear)



Edited volumes

[2] Bean, N.G., Pollett, P.K., Ross, J.V. and Taylor, P.G. (2013) Special issue on modelling and decision making in ecological systems. Ecological Modelling 249.

[Preface | Issue]


[1] Pollett, P.K. and Ross, J.V. (2007) Management, control and decision making for ecological systems. Ecological Modelling 201 (1).

[Editorial | Issue] Print ISSN: 0304-3800.



Book review

[1] Ross, J.V. Review of Modeling to Inform Infectious Disease Control. By Niels G. Becker. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall / CRC Press. 2015. In Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics (to appear).



PhD Thesis

[1] Ross, J.V. (2007) Density dependent Markov population processes: models and methodology. Department of Mathematics, The University of Queensland.



Outreach Communication

[8] Garcia-Diaz, P., Ross, J. and Cassey, P. (2016) Alien invaders: the illegal reptile trade is a serious threat to Australia. The Conversation November 17.

[7] McVernon, J., Ross, J., Glass, K., Mitchell, L., Geard, N. and Moss, R. (2016) Computing helps the study of infections on a global and local scale. The Conversation June 6.

[6] McVernon, J., McCaw, J., Ross, J., Glass, K. and Geard, N. (2015) Health Check: when are we most likely to catch viral diseases? The Conversation July 6.

[5] Cope, R., Ross, J. and Cassey, P. (2015) Australia's Ebola Risk. Australasian Science April, 24-25.

[4] Black, A.J. and Ross, J.V. (2013) Predicting the Period of Epidemic Outbreaks II. Maths of Planet Earth (AMSI blog).

[3] Black, A.J. and Ross, J.V. (2013) Predicting the Period of Epidemic Outbreaks I. Maths of Planet Earth (AMSI blog).

[2] Black, A.J. and Ross, J.V. (2013) The Mathematics of Immunisation Targets. Maths of Planet Earth (AMSI blog).

[1] Ross, J.V. (2006) Protect or create? Infinity 21.
[Article (pdf) | Article (online version)]