### Dr Joshua Ross: Publications

If you have any trouble accessing my papers, please send me an email requesting the article you would like to read.

Google Scholar Citations

[ 2006-2009 | 2010-2014 | 2015-2019 | Submitted ]

[ Book chapter | Edited volumes | Book review ]

[ PhD Thesis | Outreach communication ]

### Submitted

Ballard, P.G., Bean, N.G., and

**Ross, J.V.**The impact of time-dependent transmission rate on the probability of epidemic fade-out.

Cope, R.C.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Chilver, M., Stocks, N.P. and Mitchell, L. Connecting surveillance and population-level influenza incidence.

Cope, R.C.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Drake, J.M., Wittman, T.A., Dyer, E., Blackburn, T.M., West, P. and Cassey, P. Assessment of range bagging for the prediction of potential invasive ranges.

Garcia-Diaz, P.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Vall-Llosera, M. and Cassey, P. Monitoring for successful detection: implementation of early detection surveys for alien reptiles.

Prowse, T.A.A., Adikusuma, F., Cassey, P., Thomas, P. and

**Ross, J.V.**A Y-chromosome shredding gene drive for controlling pest vertebrate populations.

### Fully-Refereed Journal Articles

### 2015 - 2019

[69] Yan, A.W.C., Black, A.J., McCaw, J.M., Rebuli, N.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Swan, A.J. and Hickson, R.I. (2018) The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between communities.

*Mathematical Biosciences*303, 139-147.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[68] Wilkins, K.E., Prowse, T.A.A., Cassey, P., Thomas, P.Q. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2018) Pest demography critically determines the viability of synthetic gene drives for population control.

*Mathematical Biosciences*in press.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[67] Rebuli, N.P., Bean, N.G. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2018) Estimating the basic reproductive number during the early stages of an emerging epidemic.

*Theoretical Population Biology*119, 26-36.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[66] Price, D.J., Bean, N.G.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Tuke, J. (2018) Designing group dose-response studies in the presence of transmission.

*Mathematical Biosciences*304, 62-78.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[65] Price, D.J., Bean, N.G.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Tuke, J. (2018) An induced natural selection heuristic for finding optimal Bayesian experimental designs.

*Computational Statistics and Data Analysis*126, 112-124.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[64] Kinyanjui, T.M., Middleton, J., Guttel, S., Cassell, J.A.,

**Ross, J.V.**and House, T. (2018) Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units.

*PLOS Computational Biology*14(3): e1006046.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[63] Cope, R.C.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Chilver, M., Stocks, N.P. and Mitchell, L. (2018) Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data.

*PLOS Computational Biology*14(8): e1006377.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[62] Walker, J.N.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Black, A.J. (2017) Inference of epidemiological parameters from household stratified data.

*PLOS ONE*12(10): e0185910.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[61] Rebuli, N.P., Bean, N.G. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2017) Hybrid Markov chain models of S-I-R disease dynamics.

*Journal of Mathematical Biology*75, 521-541.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[60] Prowse, T.A.A., Cassey, P.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Pfitzner, C., Wittmann, T. and Thomas, P. (2017) Dodging silver bullets: good CRISPR gene-drive design is critical for eradicating exotic vertebrates.

*Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences*284: 20170799.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[59] Garcia-Diaz, P.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Woolnough, A. and Cassey, P. (2017) Managing the risk of wildlife disease introduction: pathway-level biosecurity for preventing the introduction of alien ranaviruses.

*Journal of Applied Ecology*54, 234-241.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[58] Cope, R.C.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Wittmann, T.A., Watts, M.J. and Cassey, P. (2017) Predicting the risk of biological invasions using environmental similarity and transport network connectedness.

*Risk Analysis*(to appear).

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[57] Brock, A.R.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Greenhalgh, S., Durham, D., Galvani, A., Parikh, S. and Esterman, A. (2017) The effect of drug quality on the transmission of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in

*Plasmodium falciparum*.

*Infectious Diseases Modelling*2, 161-187.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[56] Brock, A.R., Gibbs, C.A.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Esterman, A. (2017) The impact of antimalarial use on the emergence and transmission of Plasmodium falciparum resistance: A scoping review of mathematical models.

*Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease*2, 54.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[55] Black, A.J., Geard, N., McCaw, J.M., McVernon, J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2017) Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies.

*Epidemics*19, 61-73.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[54] Ballard, P.G., Bean, N.G. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2017) Epidemic intervention to maximise the probability of epidemic fade-out.

*Mathematical Biosciences*293, 1-10.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[53] Mitchell, L. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2016) A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects.

*Royal Society Open Science*3:160481.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[52] Price, D.J., Bean, N.G.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Tuke, J. (2016) On the efficient determination of optimal Bayesian experimental designs using ABC: A case study in optimal observation of epidemics.

*Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference*172, 1-15.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[51] Lydeamore, M., Bean, N., Black, A.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2016) Choice of antiviral allocation scheme for pandemic influenza depends on strain transmissibility, delivery delay and stockpile size.

*Bulletin of Mathematical Biology*78, 293-321.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[50] Johnston, S.T.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Binder, B.J., McElwain, D.L.S., Haridas, P. and Simpson, M.J. (2016) Quantifying the effect of experimental design choices for

*in vitro*scratch assays.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*400, 19-31.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[49] Heinrich, S., Wittmann, T.A., Prowse, T.A.A.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Delean, S., Shepherd, C.R. and Cassey, P. (2016) Where did all the pangolins go? International CITES trade in pangolin species.

*Global Ecology and Conservation*8, 241-253.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[48] Garcia-Diaz, P.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Woolnough, A. and Cassey, P. (2016) The illegal wildlife trade is a likely source of invasive species.

*Conservation Letters*DOI: 10.1111/conl.12301.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[47] Cope, R.C.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Wittmann, T.A. and Cassey, P. (2016) Integrative analysis of the physical transport network into Australia.

*PLOS ONE*11, e0148831.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[46] Bean, N.G., Eshragh, A. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2016) Fisher Information for a partially-observed simple birth process.

*Communication in Statistics - Theory and Methods*45:24, 7161-7183.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[45] Ballard, P.G., Bean, N.G. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2016) The probability of epidemic fade-out is non-monotonic in transmission rate for the Markovian SIR model with demography.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*393, 170-178.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[44]

**Ross, J.V.**and Black, A.J. (2015) Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: The probability of a major outbreak.

*Mathematical Medicine and Biology*32, 331-343.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[43] Robinson, S.J., Bean, N.G.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Thompson, R.M. and Bjornsson, K.T. (2015) Statistical description of wetland hydrological connectivity to the River Murray in South Australia under natural and regulated conditions.

*Journal of Hydrology*531, 929-939.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[42] Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2015) Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: When can we improve on the equalising strategy?

*Epidemics*11, 7-13.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[41] Garcia-Diaz, P.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Ayres, C., and Cassey, P. (2015) Understanding the biological invasion risk posed by the global wildlife trade: propagule pressure drives the introduction and establishment of Nearctic turtles.

*Global Change Biology*21, 1078-1091.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[40] Cope, R.C., Prowse, T.A.A.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Wittmann, T.A. and Cassey, P. (2015) Temporal modelling of ballast water discharge and ship-mediated invasion risk to Australia.

*Royal Society Open Science*2 150039; DOI: 10.1098/rsos.150039.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[39] Black, A.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2015) Computation of epidemic final size distributions.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*367, 159-165.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[38] Binder, B.J., Landman, K.A., Newgreen, D.F. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2015) Incomplete penetrance: The role of stochasticity in developmental cell colonization.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*380, 309-314.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[37] Bean, N.G., Elliott, R.J., Eshragh, A. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2015) On binomial observations of continuous-time Markovian population models.

*Journal of Applied Probability*52, 457-472.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

### 2010 - 2014

[36]

**Ross, J.V.**and Binder, B.J. (2014) Approximating spatially-exclusive invasion processes.

*Physical Review E*89, 052709.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[35] McKinley, T.J.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Deardon, R. and Cook, A.R. (2014) Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models.

*Computational Statistics and Data Analysis*71, 434-447.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[34] Johnston, S.T., Simpson, M.J., McElwain, D.L.S., Binder, B.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2014) Interpreting scratch assays using pair density dynamics and approximate Bayesian computation.

*Open Biology*4: 140097.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[33] Davies, K.J., Green, J.E.F., Bean, N.G., Binder, B.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2014) On the derivation of approximations to cellular automata models and the assumption of independence.

*Mathematical Biosciences*253, 63-71.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[32] Cope, R.C., Cassey, P., Hugo, G.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2014) Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia.

*PLoS Curents Outbreaks*2014 Dec 10. Edition 1. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.aa0375fd48a92c7c9422aa543a88711f.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[31] Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2014) The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*359, 45-53.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[30] Pagendam, D.E. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Optimal use of GPS transmitter for estimating species migration rate.

*Ecological Modelling*249, 37-41.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[29] House, T.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Sirl, D. (2013) How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final size calculation.

*Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences*469, 20120436.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | Supplementary Code | *EpiStruct* Code]

[28] Black, A. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic.

*PLoS ONE*8(8): e73420.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[27] Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza.

*Journal of the Royal Society Interface*10, 20121019.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | *EpiStruct* Code]

[26]

**Ross, J.V.**(2012) On parameter estimation in population models III: Time-inhomogeneous processes and observation error.

*Theoretical Population Biology*82, 1-17.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[25] House, T., Inglis, N.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Wilson, F., Suleman, S., Edeghere, O., Smith, G., Olowokure, B. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households.

*BMC Medicine*10:117.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | See also a Commentary on the paper]

[24] Binder, B.J.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Simpson, M.J. (2012) A hybrid model for studying spatial aspects of infectious diseases.

*ANZIAM Journal*54, 37-49.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

Special issue on Mathematical Biology.

[23]

**Ross, J.V.**(2011) Invasion of infectious diseases in finite, homogeneous populations.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*289, 83-89.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[22] Spence, L.A.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Wiser, S.K., Allen, R.B. and Coomes, D.A. (2011) Disturbance affects short-term facilitation, but not long-term saturation, of exotic plant invasion in New Zealand forest.

*Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences*278, 1457-1466.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[21] Leon Danon, Ashley Ford, Thomas House, Chris Jewell, Matt Keeling, Gareth Roberts,

**Joshua Ross**and Matthew C. Vernon (2011) Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease.

*Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases*.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

*Invited review* for special issue "Network Perspectives on Infectious Disease Dynamics".

[20] Conlan, A.J.K., Eames, K.T.D., Gage, J., von Kirchbach, J.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Saenz, R. and Gog, J. (2011) Measuring social networks in British primary schools through scientific engagement.

*Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences*278, 1467-1475.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[19]

**Ross, J.V.**(2010) Computationally exact methods for stochastic periodic dynamics: Spatiotemporal dispersal and temporally forced transmission.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*262, 14-22.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[18]

**Ross, J.V.**, House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Calculation of disease dynamics in a population of households.

*PLoS ONE*5(3): e9666.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | *EpiStruct* Code]

[17]

**Ross, J.V.**and Pollett, P.K. (2010) Simple rules for ranking and optimally managing metapopulations.

*Ecological Modelling*221, 2515-2520.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[16] Pollett, P.K., Dooley, A.H. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2010) Modelling population processes with random initial conditions.

*Mathematical Biosciences*223, 142-150.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

### 2006 - 2009

[15]

**Ross, J.V.**(2009) A note on density dependence in population models.

*Ecological Modelling*220, 3472-3474.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[14]

**Ross, J.V.**, Pagendam, D.E. and Pollett, P.K. (2009) On parameter estimation in population models II: multi-dimensional processes and transient dynamics.

*Theoretical Population Biology*75, 123-132.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[13] Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2009) Efficient methods for studying stochastic disease and population dynamics.

*Theoretical Population Biology*75, 133-141.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

F1000 Recommended.

[12] Dangerfield, C.E.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Keeling, M.J. (2009) Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model.

*Journal of the Royal Society Interface*6, 761-774.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[11]

**Ross, J.V.**, Sirl, D.J., Pollett, P.K. and Possingham, H.P. (2008) Metapopulation persistence in a dynamic landscape: more habitat or better stewardship?

*Ecological Applications*18, 590-598.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[10] Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2008) On methods for studying stochastic disease dynamics.

*Journal of the Royal Society Interface*5, 171-181.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[9] Wagner, L.D.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Possingham, H.P. (2007) Catastrophe management and inter-reserve distance for marine reserve networks.

*Ecological Modelling*201, 82-88.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[8]

**Ross, J.V.**, Taimre, T. and Pollett, P.K. (2007) Estimation for queues from queue length data.

*Queueing Systems*55, 131-138.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[7]

**Ross, J.V.**and Pollett, P.K. (2007) On costs and decisions in population management.

*Ecological Modelling*201, 60-66.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[6] Cairns, B.J.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Taimre, T. (2007) A comparison of models for predicting population persistence.

*Ecological Modelling*201, 19-26.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[5]

**Ross, J.V.**, Taimre, T. and Pollett, P.K. (2006) On parameter estimation in population models.

*Theoretical Population Biology*70, 498-510.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[4]

**Ross, J.V.**and Pollett, P.K. (2006) Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases.

*Mathematical Biosciences*202, 310-322.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[3]

**Ross, J.V.**(2006) Comment on ''On the Regulation of Populations of Mammals, Birds, Fish, and Insects'' II.

*Science*311, 1100.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[2]

**Ross, J.V.**(2006) Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes.

*Bulletin of Mathematical Biology*68, 417-449.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[1]

**Ross, J.V.**(2006) A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics.

*Journal of Mathematical Biology*52, 788-806.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

### Conference Proceedings

[5] Pagendam, D.E. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2011) Optimal GPS tracking for estimating species movements. In (Eds F. Chan and D. Marinova)

*Proceedings of MODSIM11 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011.

[4]

**Ross, J.V.**and Pollett, P.K. (2009) Rules of thumb for metapopulation management. In (Eds R.S. Anderssen, R.D. Braddock and L.T.H. Newham)

*Proceedings of the 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, July 2009, pp. 1795-1801.

[3]

**Ross, J.V.**and Taimre, T. (2007) On the analysis of hospital infection data using Markov models. In (Eds Don Kulasiri and Les Oxley)

*Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07)*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007, pp. 2939-2945.

[2] Pollett, P.K. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2005) Costs and decisions in population management: koalas on Kangaroo Island. In (Eds Robert Argent and Andre Zerger)

*Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05)*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2082-2088.

[1] Cairns, B.J.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Taimre, T. (2005) Models for predicting extinction times: shall we dance (or walk or jump)? In (Eds Robert Argent and Andre Zerger)

*Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05)*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2061-2067.

### Book chapter

[1] Delean, S., Prowse, T.A.A.,**Ross, J.V.**and Tuke, J. Analyzing time series data: Single species abundance modelling. In

*Population Ecology in Practice: Underused, Misused, and Abused Methods.*Editors: Murray, D.L. and Chapron, G. (to appear)

### Edited volumes

[2] Bean, N.G., Pollett, P.K.,**Ross, J.V.**and Taylor, P.G. (2013) Special issue on modelling and decision making in ecological systems.

*Ecological Modelling*249.

[1] Pollett, P.K. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2007) Management, control and decision making for ecological systems.

*Ecological Modelling*201 (1).

[Editorial | Issue] Print ISSN: 0304-3800.

### Book review

[1]**Ross, J.V.**Review of

*Modeling to Inform Infectious Disease Control.*By Niels G. Becker. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall / CRC Press. 2015. In

*Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics*(to appear).

### PhD Thesis

[1]**Ross, J.V.**(2007) Density dependent Markov population processes: models and methodology.

*Department of Mathematics, The University of Queensland*.

### Outreach Communication

[8] Garcia-Diaz, P.,**Ross, J.**and Cassey, P. (2016) Alien invaders: the illegal reptile trade is a serious threat to Australia.

*The Conversation*November 17.

[7] McVernon, J.,

**Ross, J.**, Glass, K., Mitchell, L., Geard, N. and Moss, R. (2016) Computing helps the study of infections on a global and local scale.

*The Conversation*June 6.

[6] McVernon, J., McCaw, J.,

**Ross, J.**, Glass, K. and Geard, N. (2015) Health Check: when are we most likely to catch viral diseases?

*The Conversation*July 6.

[5] Cope, R.,

**Ross, J.**and Cassey, P. (2015) Australia's Ebola Risk.

*Australasian Science*April, 24-25.

[4] Black, A.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Predicting the Period of Epidemic Outbreaks II.

*Maths of Planet Earth (AMSI blog)*.

[3] Black, A.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Predicting the Period of Epidemic Outbreaks I.

*Maths of Planet Earth (AMSI blog)*.

[2] Black, A.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) The Mathematics of Immunisation Targets.

*Maths of Planet Earth (AMSI blog)*.

[1]

**Ross, J.V.**(2006) Protect or create?

*Infinity 21*.

[Article (pdf) | Article (online version)]