### Dr Joshua Ross: Publications

If you have any trouble accessing my papers, please send me an email requesting the article you would like to read.

Google Scholar Citations

[ 2006-2009 | 2010-2014 | Submitted ]

[ Edited volume | PhD Thesis | Outreach Communication ]

### Submitted

Bean, N.G., Eshragh, A. and

**Ross, J.V.**Fisher Information for a partially-observed simple birth process.

Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics.

Black, A.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**Computation of epidemic final size distributions.

Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: can we improve on the equalising strategy?

Robinson, S.J., Bean, N.G.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Thompson, R.M. and Bjornsson, K.T. Statistical description of wetland hydrological connectivity to the River Murray in South Australia under natural and regulated conditions.

**Ross, J.V.**and Binder, B.J. Approximating spatially-exclusive invasion processes.

**Ross, J.V.**and Black, A.J. Contact tracing and antiviral prophylaxis in the early stages of a pandemic: The probability of a major outbreak.

Teo, M., Bean, N.G. and

**Ross, J.V.**On sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the Markovian SIR epidemic model.

### Fully-Refereed Journal Articles

### 2010 - 2014

[33] McKinley, T.J.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Deardon, R. and Cook, A.R. (2014) Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models.

*Computational Statistics and Data Analysis*71, 434-447.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[32] Davies, K.J., Green, J.E.F., Bean, N.G., Binder, B.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2014) On the derivation of approximations to cellular automata models and the assumption of independence.

*Mathematical Biosciences (to appear)*.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[31] Bean, N.G., Elliott, R.J., Eshragh, A. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2014) On binomial observation of continuous-time Markovian population models.

*Journal of Applied Probability (to appear)*.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[30] Pagendam, D.E. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Optimal use of GPS transmitter for estimating species migration rate.

*Ecological Modelling*249, 37-41.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[29] House, T.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Sirl, D. (2013) How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final size calculation.

*Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences*469, 20120436.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | Supplementary Code | *EpiStruct* Code]

[28] Black, A. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Estimating a Markovian epidemic model using household serial interval data from the early phase of an epidemic.

*PLoS ONE*8(8): e73420.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[27] Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza.

*Journal of the Royal Society Interface*10, 20121019.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | *EpiStruct* Code]

[26]

**Ross, J.V.**(2012) On parameter estimation in population models III: Time-inhomogeneous processes and observation error.

*Theoretical Population Biology*82, 1-17.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[25] House, T., Inglis, N.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Wilson, F., Suleman, S., Edeghere, O., Smith, G., Olowokure, B. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households.

*BMC Medicine*10:117.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | See also a Commentary on the paper]

[24] Binder, B.J.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Simpson, M.J. (2012) A hybrid model for studying spatial aspects of infectious diseases.

*ANZIAM Journal*54, 37-49.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

Special issue on Mathematical Biology.

[23]

**Ross, J.V.**(2011) Invasion of infectious diseases in finite, homogeneous populations.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*289, 83-89.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[22] Spence, L.A.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Wiser, S.K., Allen, R.B. and Coomes, D.A. (2011) Disturbance affects short-term facilitation, but not long-term saturation, of exotic plant invasion in New Zealand forest.

*Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences*278, 1457-1466.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[21] Leon Danon, Ashley Ford, Thomas House, Chris Jewell, Matt Keeling, Gareth Roberts,

**Joshua Ross**and Matthew C. Vernon (2011) Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease.

*Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases*.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

*Invited review* for special issue "Network Perspectives on Infectious Disease Dynamics".

[20] Conlan, A.J.K., Eames, K.T.D., Gage, J., von Kirchbach, J.,

**Ross, J.V.**, Saenz, R. and Gog, J. (2011) Measuring social networks in British primary schools through scientific engagement.

*Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences*278, 1467-1475.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[19]

**Ross, J.V.**(2010) Computationally exact methods for stochastic periodic dynamics: Spatiotemporal dispersal and temporally forced transmission.

*Journal of Theoretical Biology*262, 14-22.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[18]

**Ross, J.V.**, House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Calculation of disease dynamics in a population of households.

*PLoS ONE*5(3): e9666.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar | *EpiStruct* Code]

[17]

**Ross, J.V.**and Pollett, P.K. (2010) Simple rules for ranking and optimally managing metapopulations.

*Ecological Modelling*221, 2515-2520.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[16] Pollett, P.K., Dooley, A.H. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2010) Modelling population processes with random initial conditions.

*Mathematical Biosciences*223, 142-150.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

### 2006 - 2009

[15]

**Ross, J.V.**(2009) A note on density dependence in population models.

*Ecological Modelling*220, 3472-3474.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[14]

**Ross, J.V.**, Pagendam, D.E. and Pollett, P.K. (2009) On parameter estimation in population models II: multi-dimensional processes and transient dynamics.

*Theoretical Population Biology*75, 123-132.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[13] Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2009) Efficient methods for studying stochastic disease and population dynamics.

*Theoretical Population Biology*75, 133-141.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

F1000 Recommended.

[12] Dangerfield, C.E.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Keeling, M.J. (2009) Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model.

*Journal of the Royal Society Interface*6, 761-774.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[11]

**Ross, J.V.**, Sirl, D.J., Pollett, P.K. and Possingham, H.P. (2008) Metapopulation persistence in a dynamic landscape: more habitat or better stewardship?

*Ecological Applications*18, 590-598.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[10] Keeling, M.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2008) On methods for studying stochastic disease dynamics.

*Journal of the Royal Society Interface*5, 171-181.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[9] Wagner, L.D.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Possingham, H.P. (2007) Catastrophe management and inter-reserve distance for marine reserve networks.

*Ecological Modelling*201, 82-88.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[8]

**Ross, J.V.**, Taimre, T. and Pollett, P.K. (2007) Estimation for queues from queue length data.

*Queueing Systems*55, 131-138.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[7]

**Ross, J.V.**and Pollett, P.K. (2007) On costs and decisions in population management.

*Ecological Modelling*201, 60-66.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[6] Cairns, B.J.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Taimre, T. (2007) A comparison of models for predicting population persistence.

*Ecological Modelling*201, 19-26.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[5]

**Ross, J.V.**, Taimre, T. and Pollett, P.K. (2006) On parameter estimation in population models.

*Theoretical Population Biology*70, 498-510.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[4]

**Ross, J.V.**and Pollett, P.K. (2006) Extinction times for a birth-death process with two phases.

*Mathematical Biosciences*202, 310-322.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[3]

**Ross, J.V.**(2006) Comment on ''On the Regulation of Populations of Mammals, Birds, Fish, and Insects'' II.

*Science*311, 1100.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[2]

**Ross, J.V.**(2006) Stochastic models for mainland-island metapopulations in static and dynamic landscapes.

*Bulletin of Mathematical Biology*68, 417-449.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

[1]

**Ross, J.V.**(2006) A stochastic metapopulation model accounting for habitat dynamics.

*Journal of Mathematical Biology*52, 788-806.

[Articles Citing via Google Scholar]

### Conference Proceedings

[5] Pagendam, D.E. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2011) Optimal GPS tracking for estimating species movements. In (Eds F. Chan and D. Marinova)

*Proceedings of MODSIM11 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011.

[4]

**Ross, J.V.**and Pollett, P.K. (2009) Rules of thumb for metapopulation management. In (Eds R.S. Anderssen, R.D. Braddock and L.T.H. Newham)

*Proceedings of the 18th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, July 2009, pp. 1795-1801.

[3]

**Ross, J.V.**and Taimre, T. (2007) On the analysis of hospital infection data using Markov models. In (Eds Don Kulasiri and Les Oxley)

*Proceedings of the 17th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM07)*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007, pp. 2939-2945.

[2] Pollett, P.K. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2005) Costs and decisions in population management: koalas on Kangaroo Island. In (Eds Robert Argent and Andre Zerger)

*Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05)*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2082-2088.

[1] Cairns, B.J.,

**Ross, J.V.**and Taimre, T. (2005) Models for predicting extinction times: shall we dance (or walk or jump)? In (Eds Robert Argent and Andre Zerger)

*Proceedings of the 16th Biennial Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM05)*, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2061-2067.

### Edited volumes

[2] Bean, N.G., Pollett, P.K.,**Ross, J.V.**and Taylor, P.G. (2013) Special issue on modelling and decision making in ecological systems.

*Ecological Modelling*249.

[1] Pollett, P.K. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2007) Management, control and decision making for ecological systems.

*Ecological Modelling*201 (1).

[Editorial | Issue] Print ISSN: 0304-3800.

### PhD Thesis

[1]**Ross, J.V.**(2007) Density dependent Markov population processes: models and methodology.

*Department of Mathematics, The University of Queensland*.

### Outreach Communication

[4] Black, A.J. and**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Predicting the Period of Epidemic Outbreaks II.

[3] Black, A.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) Predicting the Period of Epidemic Outbreaks I.

[2] Black, A.J. and

**Ross, J.V.**(2013) The Mathematics of Immunisation Targets.

[1]

**Ross, J.V.**(2006) Protect or create?

*Infinity 21*.

[Article (pdf) | Article (online version)]